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Yet price and value are two very distinct concepts. The key here is to allow for outliers by focusing on the range of possible outcomes, from upside to downside scenarios, rather than a single most likely scenario.

Thinking about ways the plan could go wrong is one way to do it. When it comes to probabilities, we always try to think like a statistician to generate an unbiased baseline prediction, when assuming probabilities of those scenarios.

But we also try to use specific information about the case to adjust the baseline prediction, if there are particular reasons to expect the optimistic bias to be more or less pronounced in this project than in others of the same type.

For many high-quality businesses, the calculation of this rate can be sensibly informed by their exposure to structural growth drivers, which, in turn, can justify higher growth rates than GDP.

The structural growth component can be driven by secular market trends, technological leadership, a superior business model or any type of durable competitive advantage.

At Redeye, margin of safety is heavily conscious of what could go wrong, not what the discount is to fair value. We argue that a reasonable margin of safety is achieved when a stock is purchased at price below or on par with our Bear Case.

Looking more closely at the Bear Case scenario will help one to have a more balanced view than just focusing on the potential upside in the Bull Case scenario.

Though, any worst-case scenario is often more consequential than the forecast itself. The Bull case serves the sell discipline in order to identify a potential exit.

The key here is to really think long-term in the bull case and be patient. Patient enough to hold good investments at least until the market is willing to recognise its full potential.

Once a position is taken, the Bull Case will help to avoid premature selling. Just because prices are not attractive enough to buy is not a reason to sell.

However, a position in a company should be sold entirely when the share price reflects the Bull Case or when cash is needed to take advantage of a superior opportunity elsewhere.

Catalyst Potential is a tool for our analyst to flag specific catalysts that may drive the share price. Investors can use it for identifying and analyzing ongoing or future events that will have a significant impact on performance of publicly traded stocks.

In dealing with the future, we think about four things: Alternativ gibt es drei klassische Boni: Eine Einzahlung in diesem Zeitraum ist also notwendig.

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